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Modeling the high-impact-low-probability oil spills in the Mediterranean

  • Svitlana Liubartseva
  • Giovanni Coppini
  • Pierre Daniel
  • Megi Hoxhaj

Despite considerable efforts to improve scientific understanding and risk management, governments and businesses remain insufficiently prepared to confront large oil spills considered to be the so called ‘high-impact low-probability’ disasters. To alleviate this problem, we focus on the historical HAVEN oil spill (off the Port of Genoa, 1991) recognized not only as the largest shipwreck in the European waters, but also as one of the worst oil pollution cases in the Med. We reconstruct this spill with the Lagrangian oil spill model MEDSLIK-II forced by the to-date high resolution meteo-oceanographic datasets. Moreover, we run the HAVEN oil spill scenario stochastically sampling virtual spills randomly in space and time. The results are presented as the pollution hazard indices in probabilistic terms, which is supposed to be a representative indicator of future accidents. The highest indices are found in the Alboran Sea, Algerian and Liguro-Provençal subbasins, and in the center of the Ionian Sea. Conversely, the southern part of the Ionian, the areas east of Sardinia and west of Corsica, the Gulf of Lion, the northern Adriatic, and north-eastern Aegean Sea do not reveal high hazards.

  • Keywords:
  • Oil spill modeling,
  • Hazard mapping,
  • Copernicus Marine Service,
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Svitlana Liubartseva

Global Coastal Ocean Division, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0002-0219-7543

Giovanni Coppini

Global Coastal Ocean Division, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0003-3664-3983

Pierre Daniel

Département Prévision Marine et Océanographique, France - ORCID: 0000-0002-1111-034X

Megi Hoxhaj

Global Coastal Ocean Division, Italy - ORCID: 0009-0001-5640-5539

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  • Anno di pubblicazione: 2024
  • Pagine: 911-922

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  • Anno di pubblicazione: 2024

Informazioni sul capitolo

Titolo del capitolo

Modeling the high-impact-low-probability oil spills in the Mediterranean

Autori

Svitlana Liubartseva, Giovanni Coppini, Pierre Daniel, Megi Hoxhaj

Lingua

Italian

DOI

10.36253/979-12-215-0556-6.79

Opera sottoposta a peer review

Anno di pubblicazione

2024

Copyright

© 2024 Author(s)

Licenza d'uso

CC BY-NC-SA 4.0

Licenza dei metadati

CC0 1.0

Informazioni bibliografiche

Titolo del libro

Tenth International Symposium "Monitoring of Mediterranean Coastal Areas: Problems and Measurement Techniques"

Sottotitolo del libro

Livorno (Italy) 11th-13th June 2024

Curatori

Laura Bonora, Marcantonio Catelani, Matteo De Vincenzi, Giorgio Matteucci

Opera sottoposta a peer review

Anno di pubblicazione

2024

Copyright

© 2024 Author(s)

Licenza d'uso

CC BY-NC-SA 4.0

Licenza dei metadati

CC0 1.0

Editore

Firenze University Press

DOI

10.36253/979-12-215-0556-6

eISBN (pdf)

979-12-215-0556-6

eISBN (xml)

979-12-215-0557-3

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Monitoring of Mediterranean Coastal Areas: Problems and Measurement Techniques

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2975-0288

10

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