- ASA 2021 Statistics and Information Systems for Policy Evaluation
- Edited by Bruno Bertaccini, Luigi Fabbris, Alessandra Petrucci
Unemployment dynamics in Italy: a counterfactual analysis at Covid time
- Illya Bakurov
- Fabrizio Culotta
- © 2021 Author(s) |
- CC BY 4.0
- DOI: 10.36253/978-88-5518-461-8.40
This work performs a counterfactual analysis on unemployment dynamics in Italy during the year 2020. In doing so, ARIMA models are estimated and used to make projections for the 2020 quarters. This exercise is performed at population level and for each gender, age and educational groups. Data are from the Italian Labor Force Survey covering the years 2015-2019 at quarterly frequency. Over the quarters of the year 2020, i.e. a time period covered by the Covid-19 pandemic and related restrictions, actual and counterfactual unemployment dynamics are compared. Overall, this work tries to answer to the following question: what would have happened to unemployment dynamics if Covid-19 pandemic and related restrictions would not arise as they did? Results can be informative to policymakers if the ARIMA projections can represent a reference for the aftermath of the pandemic.
- Keywords:
- Covid-19,
- Italy,
- Unemployment Dynamics,
- Counterfactual Analysis,
- ARIMA,
Nova University of Lisbon, Portugal - ORCID: 0000-0002-6458-942X
University of Genoa, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0002-3910-3088
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Chapter Information
Chapter Title
Unemployment dynamics in Italy: a counterfactual analysis at Covid time
Authors
Illya Bakurov, Fabrizio Culotta
Language
English
DOI
10.36253/978-88-5518-461-8.40
Peer Reviewed
Publication Year
2021
Copyright Information
© 2021 Author(s)
Content License
Metadata License
Bibliographic Information
Book Title
ASA 2021 Statistics and Information Systems for Policy Evaluation
Book Subtitle
BOOK OF SHORT PAPERS of the on-site conference
Editors
Bruno Bertaccini, Luigi Fabbris, Alessandra Petrucci
Peer Reviewed
Publication Year
2021
Copyright Information
© 2021 Author(s)
Content License
Metadata License
Publisher Name
Firenze University Press
DOI
10.36253/978-88-5518-461-8
eISBN (pdf)
978-88-5518-461-8
eISBN (xml)
978-88-5518-462-5
Series Title
Proceedings e report
Series ISSN
2704-601X
Series E-ISSN
2704-5846