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Ethical and economic impact of applying optimal designs for inference on the cut-off of a biomarker

  • Alessandro Baldi Antognini
  • Sara Cecconi
  • Rosamarie Frieri
  • Maroussa Zagoraiou

In personalized clinical trials, continuous biomarkers are often used to guide treatment assignment decisions by identifying patients more likely to benefit from an experimental therapy. A common approach is to discretize these biomarkers via a cut-off/threshold given by a data-driven quantile, usually the median, in order to define the subgroups. Although easy to apply, this strategy can lead to questionable decisions from both an ethical and practical perspective. In this work, we take into account the design-based framework introduced by Baldi Antognini et al.[1] as a starting point to reflect on what happens when inappropriate thresholds are used to guide treatment assignments in comparative trials with binary outcomes and a continuous covariate. Our main focus is on the ethical dimension: we highlight how arbitrary cut-offs can lead to unfair and potentially harmful treatment assignment decisions. We also discuss some economic consequences, such as wasted resources due to misclassification. We simulate several biomarker distributions to compare the optimal, model‐based threshold of [1] with the common median‐split rule, quantifying ethical and economic impacts such as allocation to suboptimal treatments. FDA warnings note that poor cutoff selection jeopardizes trial integrity and patient welfare [2]. This issue is timely given the expanding role of biomarkers in early‐phase trials and regulatory decisions. Inadequate thresholds can compromise trial interpretation, restrict patient access to promising therapies, and undermine fairness and transparency. We advocate for model‐based threshold rules grounded in clinical insight and statistical rigor to enhance transparency for researchers, clinicians, and regulators.  

  • Keywords:
  • Continuous biomarker,
  • Categorization,
  • Ethical and economic impact in clinical trials,
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Alessandro Baldi Antognini

Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0002-7426-8208

Sara Cecconi

Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Italy - ORCID: 0009-0000-1187-7252

Rosamarie Frieri

Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0003-2707-183X

Maroussa Zagoraiou

Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0002-8461-8240

  1. Baldi Antognini, A., Cecconi, S., Frieri, R., Zagoraiou, M. (2025). Biomarker-driven optimal designs for patient enrollment restriction. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 34(9), pp. 1821-1837. DOI: 10.1177/09622802251327690
  2. Baldi Antognini, A., Frieri, R., Zagoraiou, M. (2023). New insights into adaptive enrichment designs. Statistical Papers, 64(4), pp. 1305-1328. DOI: 10.1007/s00362-023-01433-0
  3. Forster, M., Brealey, S., Chick, S., Keding, A., Corbacho, B., Alban, A., Pértile, P., Rangan, A. (2021). Cost-effective clinical trial design: Application of a Bayesian sequential model to the ProFHER pragmatic trial. Clinical Trials, 18(6), pp. 647–656. DOI: 10.1177/17407745211032909
  4. Sverdlov, O., Ryeznik, Y. (2019). Implementing unequal randomization in clinical trials with heterogeneous treatment costs. Statistics in Medicine, 38(16), pp. 2905–2927. DOI: 10.1002/sim.8160
  5. US Food and Drug Administration (2019). Adaptive Designs for Clinical Trials of Drugs and Biologics: Guidance for Industry. URL: https://www.fda.gov/media/78495/download. Accessed on: October 28, 2025.
  6. Zhang, Y., Molinaro, A.M. (2022). Categorizing continuous biomarkers: More cons than pros. Neuro-Oncology Practice, 9(2), pp. 81-82. DOI: 10.1093/nop/npac012
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  • Anno di pubblicazione: 2026
  • Pagine: 39-43

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  • Anno di pubblicazione: 2026

Informazioni sul capitolo

Titolo del capitolo

Ethical and economic impact of applying optimal designs for inference on the cut-off of a biomarker

Autori

Alessandro Baldi Antognini, Sara Cecconi, Rosamarie Frieri, Maroussa Zagoraiou

Lingua

Inglese

DOI

10.36253/979-12-215-1062-1.9

Opera sottoposta a peer review

Anno di pubblicazione

2026

Copyright

© 2026 Author(s)

Licenza d'uso

CC BY 4.0

Licenza dei metadati

CC0 1.0

Informazioni bibliografiche

Titolo del libro

Data, Statistics and AI for Well-Being of People and Organisations

Curatori

Luigi Fabbris, Alberto Franci, Pietro Renzi

Opera sottoposta a peer review

Numero di pagine

420

Anno di pubblicazione

2026

Copyright

© 2026 Author(s)

Licenza d'uso

CC BY 4.0

Licenza dei metadati

CC0 1.0

Editore

Firenze University Press

DOI

10.36253/979-12-215-1062-1

ISBN Print

979-12-215-1061-4

eISBN (pdf)

979-12-215-1062-1

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979-12-215-1063-8

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Applied Statistics Series

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