Contenuto in:
Capitolo

Corruption, well-being and artificial intelligence: A predictive framework for risk measurement

  • Fabrizio Sbicca

There is now a widely shared consensus that corruption is one of the main obstacles to economic, political, and social development, as it can undermine citizens' trust in institutions, lower the quality of life, and diminish overall well-being. However, to prevent and combat corruption, it is essential to deeply understand this latent phenomenon, which is not easy to measure. A step forward in understanding the phenomenon has been made by the Italian Anti-Corruption Authority, which provides the public with 70 indicators capable of measuring the risk of corruption across the territory. In particular, “Social capital” is a useful composite indicator of the context in which corruption occurs. However, the relationship is also reciprocal: the harm caused by corruption exceeds immediate monetary waste, introducing distortions in both public and private spheres, such as the loss of trust it generates among citizens. For this reason, corruption undermines the very fabric of civil life and can reduce social capital, thereby depressing growth and well-being. Artificial intelligence can help identify patterns and red flags of corruption, as well as other issues such as fraud, conflicts of interest, bid-rigging in public procurement, money laundering, and the infiltration of criminal enterprises. The increasing availability and processing power of large datasets has indeed drawn attention to the potential of developing techniques, such as those based on machine learning, aimed at identifying indicators of criminal behavior for predictive purposes. In this way, artificial intelligence can not only fight corruption directly but also significantly increase knowledge of the phenomenon, also creating a system of indicators aimed at raising collective awareness of the severe social damage caused by corruption. While its prevention and suppression are necessary conditions for reducing the phenomenon, they are not sufficient. The most effective long-term lever is the growth of social capital.

  • Keywords:
  • Made in Italy,
  • Multilabel classification,
  • Large Language Models (LLMs),
+ Mostra di più

Fabrizio Sbicca

ANAC, Autorità Nazionale Anticorruzione, Italy

  1. Banfield E.C. (1958). The Moral Basis of a Backward Society. Free Press DOI: 10.2307/3709468
  2. Bersch, C., Köbis, N. (2024). Artificial intelligence (AI) (and anti-corruption), in L. De Sousa, S. Coroado (eds.). Elgar Encyclopedia of Corruption and Society, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, pp. 17-22. DOI: 10.4337/9781803925806.ch05
  3. De Blasio, G., D'Ignazio, A., Letta, M. (2022). Gotham city. Predicting ‘corrupted’ municipalities with machine learning. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 184, pp. 1-21. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.122016
  4. Decarolis, F., Giorgiantonio C. (2022). Corruption red flags in public procurement: new evidence from Italian calls for tenders. EPJ Data Science, 11. DOI: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-022-00325-x
  5. Gnaldi, M., Ponti, B. (2018). Misurare la corruzione oggi. Obiettivi, metodi, esperienze. Milano, Franco Angeli.
  6. Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., Friedman, J. (2009). The Elements of Statistical Learning. Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction. Berlin: Springer. DOI: 10.1111/j.1751-5823.2009.00095_18.x
  7. Istat (2024a). Rapporto Bes 2023.
  8. Istat (2024b). Rapporto SDGs 2024. Informazioni statistiche per l'Agenda 2030 in Italia.
  9. James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., Taylor. J. (2023). An Introduction to Statistical Learning: with Applications in Python. Berlin, Springer. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-38747-0
  10. Lopez-Iturriaga, F.J., Sanz, I.P. (2018). Predicting public corruption with neural networks: An analysis of Spanish provinces. Social Indicators Research, 140, pp. 975-998. DOI: 10.1007/s11205-017-1802-2
  11. Mazziotta, M., Pareto, A. (2025). Statistics for Composite Indicators, Berlin, Springer. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-97978-1
  12. OECD (2024). Generative AI for anti-corruption and integrity in government. Taking stock of promise, perils and practice. OECD Artificial Intelligence Papers, 12. DOI: 10.1787/657a185a-en
  13. Picci, L. (2024). Rethinking Corruption. London: Routledge. DOI: 10.1017/9781009468824
  14. Putnam, R.D. (1993). Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy. Princeton N.J.: Princeton University Press. DOI: 10.1002/ncr.4100820215
  15. Sbicca, F. (2024a). Intelligenza artificiale e anticorruzione. Rassegna Trimestrale Osservatorio AIR, XV, 4, pp. 39-46. DOI: 10.3280/riv2023-085010
  16. Sbicca, F. (2024b). La misurazione del rischio di corruzione negli appalti. Rivista Economica del Mezzogiorno, 3-4/2023, pp. 549-600.
  17. Tulli, A. (2024). Sweeping the dirt under the rug: measuring spillovers of an anti-corruption measure. The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 41(2), pp. 654–699. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4081058
  18. United Nations (2015). 70.1 Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 25 September 2015. DOI: 10.18356/e5a72957-en
  19. UNODC (2023). Statistical Framework to Measure Corruption. Vienna: UNODC.
  20. Wachs, J., Kertesz, J. (2019). A network approach to cartel detection in public auction markets. Nature, Scientific Reports, 9. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-47198-1
  21. Wachs, J., Fazekas, M., Kertesz, J. (2021). Corruption risk in contracting markets: a network science perspective. International Journal of Data Science and Analytics, 12, pp. 45–60. DOI: 10.1007/s41060-019-00204-1
PDF
  • Anno di pubblicazione: 2026
  • Pagine: 375-379

XML
  • Anno di pubblicazione: 2026

Informazioni sul capitolo

Titolo del capitolo

Corruption, well-being and artificial intelligence: A predictive framework for risk measurement

Autori

Fabrizio Sbicca

Lingua

Inglese

DOI

10.36253/979-12-215-1062-1.65

Opera sottoposta a peer review

Anno di pubblicazione

2026

Copyright

© 2026 Author(s)

Licenza d'uso

CC BY 4.0

Licenza dei metadati

CC0 1.0

Informazioni bibliografiche

Titolo del libro

Data, Statistics and AI for Well-Being of People and Organisations

Curatori

Luigi Fabbris, Alberto Franci, Pietro Renzi

Opera sottoposta a peer review

Numero di pagine

420

Anno di pubblicazione

2026

Copyright

© 2026 Author(s)

Licenza d'uso

CC BY 4.0

Licenza dei metadati

CC0 1.0

Editore

Firenze University Press

DOI

10.36253/979-12-215-1062-1

ISBN Print

979-12-215-1061-4

eISBN (pdf)

979-12-215-1062-1

eISBN (xml)

979-12-215-1063-8

Collana

Applied Statistics Series

0

Download dei libri

0

Visualizzazioni

Salva la citazione

1.528

Libri in accesso aperto

in catalogo

3.744

Capitoli di Libri

6.674.567

Download dei libri

5.994

Autori

da 1219 Istituzioni e centri di ricerca

di 67 Nazioni

83

scientific boards

da 416 Istituzioni e centri di ricerca

di 46 Nazioni

1.439

I referee

da 400 Istituzioni e centri di ricerca

di 41 Nazioni