This study investigates the relationship between climate change and socio-demographic dynamics in the Lazio region, focusing on the period 2019–2022, deeply marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, which profoundly altered Italians’ lifestyles. During this time, citizens were often confined to their homes due to lockdowns, while remote working became widespread, allowing for greater flexibility in residential choices, regardless of workplace proximity. We integrate high-resolution climate data (ERA5 produced by Copernicus) with official municipal-level statistics from Istat, combining indicators of climate temperatures with socio-demographic variables such as population density, migratory balance, and real estate transactions. Using Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction, followed by hierarchical and k-means clustering, we classified Lazio’s 378 municipalities into climate-demographic profiles. The results show heterogeneous territorial responses: small municipalities far from Rome, mainly bordering the more northern regions, are characterized by milder temperatures and have shown steadily increasing real estate indicators in these years. The metropolitan area of Rome, however, continues to attract population despite higher than average regional temperatures, confirming that the pandemic has not affected the territorial development. This multidimensional approach reveals emerging patterns of settlement and adaptation, characterized by both environmental factors and social dynamics likely induced by the pandemic. It highlights the importance of integrating environmental and social and demographic indicators to support more resilient and place-based policy interventions. The paper also addresses methodological opportunities and challenges in using open data and data science tools for territorial analysis, useful to monitor the relationship between climate variability, demographic and social changes.
ISTAT, Italian National Institute of Statistics, Italy
ISTAT, Italian National Institute of Statistics, Italy
ISTAT, Italian National Institute of Statistics, Italy
ISTAT, Italian National Institute of Statistics, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0003-1229-7545
Titolo del capitolo
Climate change and socio-demographic dynamics in the Lazio region during Covid-19 (2019–2022)
Autori
Antonella Balistreri, Massimiliano Degortes, Annunziata Fiore, Lorella Sicuro
Lingua
Inglese
DOI
10.36253/979-12-215-1062-1.10
Opera sottoposta a peer review
Anno di pubblicazione
2026
Copyright
© 2026 Author(s)
Licenza d'uso
Licenza dei metadati
Titolo del libro
Data, Statistics and AI for Well-Being of People and Organisations
Curatori
Luigi Fabbris, Alberto Franci, Pietro Renzi
Opera sottoposta a peer review
Numero di pagine
420
Anno di pubblicazione
2026
Copyright
© 2026 Author(s)
Licenza d'uso
Licenza dei metadati
Editore
Firenze University Press
DOI
10.36253/979-12-215-1062-1
ISBN Print
979-12-215-1061-4
eISBN (pdf)
979-12-215-1062-1
eISBN (xml)
979-12-215-1063-8
Collana
Applied Statistics Series