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Climate change and socio-demographic dynamics in the Lazio region during Covid-19 (2019–2022)

  • Antonella Balistreri
  • Massimiliano Degortes
  • Annunziata Fiore
  • Lorella Sicuro

This study investigates the relationship between climate change and socio-demographic dynamics in the Lazio region, focusing on the period 2019–2022, deeply marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, which profoundly altered Italians’ lifestyles. During this time, citizens were often confined to their homes due to lockdowns, while remote working became widespread, allowing for greater flexibility in residential choices, regardless of workplace proximity. We integrate high-resolution climate data (ERA5 produced by Copernicus) with official municipal-level statistics from Istat, combining indicators of climate temperatures with socio-demographic variables such as population density, migratory balance, and real estate transactions. Using Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction, followed by hierarchical and k-means clustering, we classified Lazio’s 378 municipalities into climate-demographic profiles. The results show heterogeneous territorial responses: small municipalities far from Rome, mainly bordering the more northern regions, are characterized by milder temperatures and have shown steadily increasing real estate indicators in these years. The metropolitan area of Rome, however, continues to attract population despite higher than average regional temperatures, confirming that the pandemic has not affected the territorial development. This multidimensional approach reveals emerging patterns of settlement and adaptation, characterized by both environmental factors and social dynamics likely induced by the pandemic. It highlights the importance of integrating environmental and social and demographic indicators to support more resilient and place-based policy interventions. The paper also addresses methodological opportunities and challenges in using open data and data science tools for territorial analysis, useful to monitor the relationship between climate variability, demographic and social changes.

  • Keywords:
  • Data Science,
  • Environment,
  • Climate Data,
  • Geostatistics,
  • Territorial Data,
  • Covid,
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Antonella Balistreri

ISTAT, Italian National Institute of Statistics, Italy

Massimiliano Degortes

ISTAT, Italian National Institute of Statistics, Italy

Annunziata Fiore

ISTAT, Italian National Institute of Statistics, Italy

Lorella Sicuro

ISTAT, Italian National Institute of Statistics, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0003-1229-7545

  1. Carleton, T.A., Hsiang, S.M. (2017). Clima: impatti sociali ed economici. Equilibri Fascicolo 2.
  2. Crespi, M., Ferrari, G. (2020). Della rianalisi, o analisi retrospettiva, In Meteorologia. Quaderno di Meteorologia Aperta N°2.
  3. Giorgi, G. (2020). Cambiamenti climatici: Il Lazio la regione che ne risente di più? Retrieved May 6, 2024, https://www.meteoregionelazio.it/2020/04/10/cambiamenti-climatici-il-lazio-la-regione-che-ne-risente-di-piu.
  4. Il Meteo (2023). Il ruolo dei satelliti nella lotta al cambiamento climatico. Retrieved May 6, 2024, from: https://www.ilmeteo.net/notizie/scienza/ruolo-dei-satelliti-nella-lotta-al-cambiamento-climatico.html.
  5. Santana, C., Botta, F., Barbosa, H., Privitera, F., Menezes, R. (2023). COVID-19 is linked to changes in the time-space dimension of human mobility. Nature Human Behaviour, 7(10), pp. 1729-1739. DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01660-3
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  • Anno di pubblicazione: 2026
  • Pagine: 45-50

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  • Anno di pubblicazione: 2026

Informazioni sul capitolo

Titolo del capitolo

Climate change and socio-demographic dynamics in the Lazio region during Covid-19 (2019–2022)

Autori

Antonella Balistreri, Massimiliano Degortes, Annunziata Fiore, Lorella Sicuro

Lingua

Inglese

DOI

10.36253/979-12-215-1062-1.10

Opera sottoposta a peer review

Anno di pubblicazione

2026

Copyright

© 2026 Author(s)

Licenza d'uso

CC BY 4.0

Licenza dei metadati

CC0 1.0

Informazioni bibliografiche

Titolo del libro

Data, Statistics and AI for Well-Being of People and Organisations

Curatori

Luigi Fabbris, Alberto Franci, Pietro Renzi

Opera sottoposta a peer review

Numero di pagine

420

Anno di pubblicazione

2026

Copyright

© 2026 Author(s)

Licenza d'uso

CC BY 4.0

Licenza dei metadati

CC0 1.0

Editore

Firenze University Press

DOI

10.36253/979-12-215-1062-1

ISBN Print

979-12-215-1061-4

eISBN (pdf)

979-12-215-1062-1

eISBN (xml)

979-12-215-1063-8

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Applied Statistics Series

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