- Data, Statistics and AI for Well-Being of People and Organisations
- A cura di Luigi Fabbris, Alberto Franci, Pietro Renzi
Assessing the effects of Italy’s public procurement reform on corruption risk: An interrupted time series approach
- Maria Claudia Filippone
- Michela Gnaldi
- Simone Del Sarto
- © 2026 Author(s) |
- CC BY 4.0
- DOI: 10.36253/979-12-215-1062-1.38
In the last decade, red flag indicators have become central to corruption risk monitoring in public procurement. In Italy, the National Anti-Corruption Authority (ANAC) has promoted their use through a set of indicators designed to detect anomalies in procurement procedures. While their use is increasingly widespread in ex-post risk assessment, their potential to capture systemic effects of regulatory changes remains underexplored. This paper proposes the use of red flag indicators to evaluate systemic impacts of policy reforms. Specifically, it analyzes behavioural shifts among contracting authorities following the July 2023 entry into force of the new Italian Public Procurement Code. While the reform emphasises simplification and a results-oriented approach to enhance efficiency, it also raises concerns about potential trade-offs in terms of transparency and competition. The study draws on a longitudinal dataset covering all public contracts awarded in Italy since 2018, with daily granularity. Methodologically, it adopts a multilevel Interrupted Time Series framework implemented through Generalised Linear Mixed Models to detect systematic shifts in corruption-related risk patterns, proxied by selected red flags, following the reform, while accounting for temporal dynamics and heterogeneity across contracting authorities. By integrating red flag indicators with robust statistical modelling, the paper advances a methodological shift: from static monitoring tools to dynamic evaluative instruments. This approach strengthens the evidence base for real-time policy assessment and supports more adaptive, data-driven governance in the public sector.
- Keywords:
- Public procurement,
- Corruption risk,
- Policy evaluation,
- Mixed-effects modeling,
- Longitudinal Analysis,
University of Perugia, Italy
University of Perugia, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0002-2785-3279
University of Perugia, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0003-1102-2881
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Informazioni sul capitolo
Titolo del capitolo
Assessing the effects of Italy’s public procurement reform on corruption risk: An interrupted time series approach
Autori
Maria Claudia Filippone, Michela Gnaldi, Simone Del Sarto
Lingua
Inglese
DOI
10.36253/979-12-215-1062-1.38
Opera sottoposta a peer review
Anno di pubblicazione
2026
Copyright
© 2026 Author(s)
Licenza d'uso
Licenza dei metadati
Informazioni bibliografiche
Titolo del libro
Data, Statistics and AI for Well-Being of People and Organisations
Curatori
Luigi Fabbris, Alberto Franci, Pietro Renzi
Opera sottoposta a peer review
Numero di pagine
420
Anno di pubblicazione
2026
Copyright
© 2026 Author(s)
Licenza d'uso
Licenza dei metadati
Editore
Firenze University Press
DOI
10.36253/979-12-215-1062-1
ISBN Print
979-12-215-1061-4
eISBN (pdf)
979-12-215-1062-1
eISBN (xml)
979-12-215-1063-8
Collana
Applied Statistics Series