- ASA 2022 Data-Driven Decision Making
- A cura di Enrico di Bella, Luigi Fabbris, Corrado Lagazio
Spread of Covid-19 epidemic in Italy between March 2020 and February 2021: empirical evidence at provincial level
- Fabrizio Antolini
- Samuele Cesarini
- Francesco Giovanni Truglia
- © 2023 Author(s) |
- CC BY 4.0
- DOI: 10.36253/979-12-215-0106-3.19
Italy was one of the countries severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. An analysis of the factors that played a role in the spread of this epidemic is necessary. However, the assessment of which factors may be specific, and which may contribute the most is complex and involves a high degree of uncertainty. The main objective of this study is to evaluate and analyse the statistical associations of the spread of Covid-19 infection with identified spatial context variables (density, old-age index, average temperature, and pollution). For this purpose, the developments from the spatial convergence theory were considered, as well as data from the Italian provinces from March 2020 to February 2021, referring to the first, second and third wave. The hypothesis tested in this study is to investigate the contribution of environmental and demographic factors to the convergence of observed infection rates. Based on panel data of 107 Italian provinces from the first to the third wave, this article uses a spatial autoregressive model (SAR) to analyse the conditional β-convergence of Covid-19 infection rates. The empirical results of this paper show that there is spatial conditional β-convergence in the intensity of infection rates. This means that the contagion in neighbouring areas will affect the contagion in the local area. The age structure and population density of the provinces had a certain promoting effect on the transmission of the infection, depending on the wave analysed. Regarding the observed average temperature, the effects are not very significant and inconsistent. For the first and last wave, the level of pollution is significant in explaining the convergence processes of the infection. We demonstrate that accounting for spatial factors is essential to capture key features of the spread of Covid-19 infection.
- Keywords:
- Covid-19,
- Italian provinces,
- Conditional β-convergence,
- SAR model,
University of Teramo, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0002-3112-524X
University of Teramo, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0001-7062-1580
ISTAT, Italian National Institute of Statistics, Italy
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Informazioni sul capitolo
Titolo del capitolo
Spread of Covid-19 epidemic in Italy between March 2020 and February 2021: empirical evidence at provincial level
Autori
Fabrizio Antolini, Samuele Cesarini, Francesco Giovanni Truglia
Lingua
English
DOI
10.36253/979-12-215-0106-3.19
Opera sottoposta a peer review
Anno di pubblicazione
2023
Copyright
© 2023 Author(s)
Licenza d'uso
Licenza dei metadati
Informazioni bibliografiche
Titolo del libro
ASA 2022 Data-Driven Decision Making
Sottotitolo del libro
Book of short papers
Curatori
Enrico di Bella, Luigi Fabbris, Corrado Lagazio
Opera sottoposta a peer review
Anno di pubblicazione
2023
Copyright
© 2023 Author(s)
Licenza d'uso
Licenza dei metadati
Editore
Firenze University Press, Genova University Press
DOI
10.36253/979-12-215-0106-3
eISBN (pdf)
979-12-215-0106-3
eISBN (xml)
979-12-215-0107-0
Collana
Proceedings e report
ISSN della collana
2704-601X
e-ISSN della collana
2704-5846